Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$17.49
Liquidity
$18.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 564h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $18.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 563.6h
- 12:25SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 564h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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