Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Probability
23¢
1h
+13.0pp
24h
+14.5pp
24h Vol
$165.34
Liquidity
$12.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 14pp over 24h
Now 23¢; +13.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2040h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 29.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2040.4h
- 23:38SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 2040h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+16.0pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (29.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.