SportsMulti-outcomeExpires —
Creator

Will Kamil Majchrzak Win the Cincinnati Open?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$999.99

Liquidity

$206.51

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
—
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
atptour.com
Link
atptour.com)
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-12.7pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
Aug 8, 2026, 06:00 UTCAug 15, 2026, 05:40 UTC
updated 05:41:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-08-15T05-41Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $207 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

oracle review
Trust transition

The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: atptour.com

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: UMA pending

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Kamil Majchrzak Win the Cincinnati Open? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Kamil Majchrzak Win the Cincinnati Open? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -14.9pp at Aug 11, 03:00 UTC (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 36 hourly moves
  • Aug 13, 16:00 UTC · +14.9pp → 15¢
  • Aug 13, 06:00 UTC · +14.2pp → 14¢
  • Aug 13, 05:00 UTC · +14.2pp → 14¢
  • Aug 12, 19:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 15¢
  • Aug 11, 11:00 UTC · -14.3pp → 0¢
  • Aug 11, 07:00 UTC · -14.2pp → 0¢
  • Aug 11, 03:00 UTC · -14.9pp → 0¢
  • Aug 11, 02:00 UTC · -14.5pp → 0¢
updated 05:41:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 05:41:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventCincinnati Open: Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the men's singles title at the 2026 Cincinnati Open, currently scheduled for August 11 to August 23, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If the final is not completed and no champion is officially crowned, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer and the ATP Tour (https://www.atptour.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kamil Majchrzak Win the Cincinnati Open?"?

As of Sat, 15 Aug 2026 05:41:00 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -12.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$999.99 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $206.51. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

15 wallets
Open on Polymarket