What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in the US in May?"?

As of Sat, 02 May 2026 22:29:49 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -38.5pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $0.00. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $242.13.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-kanye-west-have-a-1-hit-in-the-us-in-may renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-kanye-west-have-a-1-hit-in-the-us-in-may/markdown.

EntertainmentExpires May 31, 2026

Creator

Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in the US in May?

Probability

4¢

+0.0pp

24h

-38.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$242.13

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
open.spotify.com
Link
open.spotify.com
Type
Source not classified
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

Apr 28, 2026, 23:00May 2, 2026, 22:29

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Down 39pp over 24h
Now 4¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $242 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert if probability recovers above 9¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
open.spotify.com
Link
open.spotify.com
Type
Source not classified
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 673.5h
LOW

Price movement

-38.5pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: -38.5pp at 10:00 (to 4¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves

22:29 · -38.5pp → 4¢
21:00 · -38.5pp → 4¢
20:00 · -38.5pp → 4¢
18:00 · -38.5pp → 4¢
17:00 · -38.5pp → 4¢
15:00 · -38.5pp → 4¢
14:00 · -38.5pp → 4¢
12:00 · -38.5pp → 4¢

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket