Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?
Probability
29¢
1h
-3.0pp
24h
-12.5pp
24h Vol
$143.81
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+20.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 13pp over 24h
Now 29¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1563h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1563.1h
- 20:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1563h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-13.5pp over the last 24h, now 29¢.
Biggest hourly move: +35.5pp at 23:00 (to 44¢).
Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:00 · +24.0pp → 32¢
- 19:00 · +24.0pp → 32¢
- 17:00 · +24.5pp → 33¢
- 15:00 · +21.5pp → 30¢
- 14:00 · +11.5pp → 20¢
- 12:00 · +9.0pp → 17¢
- 11:00 · +9.0pp → 17¢
- 09:00 · +11.5pp → 20¢
- 08:00 · +11.5pp → 20¢
- 06:00 · +11.0pp → 19¢
- 05:00 · +11.5pp → 20¢
- 03:00 · +12.0pp → 20¢
- 02:00 · +12.0pp → 20¢
- 00:00 · +16.5pp → 25¢
- 23:00 · +35.5pp → 44¢
- 21:00 · +35.0pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +18.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · +29.0pp → 37¢
- 1d ago · +11.0pp → 19¢
- 1d ago · +11.0pp → 19¢
- 1d ago · +19.5pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · +16.0pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · +11.5pp → 19¢
- 1d ago · +11.0pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +10.5pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +16.0pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · +11.5pp → 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
If Kanye West visits Israel between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Kanye West physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Kanye West enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Kanye West, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.