Will Ken Paxton drop out?
Probability
9¢
1h
-0.7pp
24h
+2.6pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$18.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 719.0h
- 01:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 719h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 7¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ken Paxton withdraws from or officially announces his withdrawal from the 2026 Texas Senate Republican Primary election, or announces the suspension of his 2026 Senate campaign, by May 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Ken Paxton or his official/legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).