Loading shell…
PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 30, 2026

Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?

Probability

1h

-0.7pp

24h

-3.4pp

24h Vol

$265.83

Liquidity

$18.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.8pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:06
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 4¢; -0.7pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 830h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $18.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 829.9h

    LOW
  • 16:06Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 830h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 6.4pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 4.2pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 3.2pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 3.1pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 4.3pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.7pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.1pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.3pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventB.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

The 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election is currently scheduled to be held on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).