SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 19, 2026
Creator

Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?

Probability

27¢

1h

+4.0pp

24h

+2.5pp

24h Vol

$79.70

Liquidity

$204.62

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.5pp 7d
May 1, 2026, 12:00May 8, 2026, 11:35
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T11-35Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 27¢; +4.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 9.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5388.4h

    LOW
  • 11:35Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.

Biggest hourly move: +24.0pp at 2d ago (to 36¢).

Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves
  • 11:00 · +19.0pp → 31¢
  • 1d ago · +16.0pp → 28¢
  • 1d ago · +20.0pp → 32¢
  • 1d ago · +19.5pp → 32¢
  • 2d ago · +24.0pp → 36¢
  • 2d ago · +21.0pp → 33¢
  • 4d ago · -16.0pp → 12¢
  • 4d ago · -16.0pp → 12¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMLB: AL Manager of the Year
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mlb

Reason

MLB — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 11:35:47 GMT, YES is priced at 27% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +4.0pp in the last hour, and +7.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 19, 2026 (2026-12-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$79.70 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $204.62. Spread between best bid and best ask: 9.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

12 wallets
Open on Polymarket