What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kim Kardashian be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?"?

As of Mon, 04 May 2026 00:11:02 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.0pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 4, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$44.77 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $44.77. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $342.23.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-kim-kardashian-be-on-vogues-best-dressed-list renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-kim-kardashian-be-on-vogues-best-dressed-list/markdown.

EntertainmentExpires May 4, 2026

Creator

Will Kim Kardashian be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?

Probability

24¢

+0.0pp

24h

-3.0pp

24h Vol

$44.77

Liquidity

$342.23

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 4, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to Vogue's list of the Best Dressed Stars at the 2026 Met Gala
Link
vogue.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Binary

Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

Apr 30, 2026, 20:00May 4, 2026, 00:10

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Price move
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 24¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
03
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $342 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 4, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to Vogue's list of the Best Dressed Stars at the 2026 Met Gala
Link
vogue.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Binary

Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

00:11Signal
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
MEDIUM
00:00Resolve
Market resolved 0h ago
HIGH

Price movement

-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.

Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 10:00 (to 22¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves

00:00 · -4.0pp → 24¢
22:00 · -3.5pp → 24¢
15:00 · -5.0pp → 22¢
14:00 · -5.0pp → 22¢
13:00 · -5.0pp → 22¢
11:00 · -5.0pp → 22¢
10:00 · -5.0pp → 22¢
09:00 · -4.5pp → 22¢

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Entertainment

Market Description

The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled to occur on May 4, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes' if the listed individual appears on Vogue's list of Best Dressed Stars from the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to Vogue's list of the Best Dressed Stars at the 2026 Met Gala. A qualifying list must be understood to be the 2026 equivalent list of the following articles, but need not be explicitly titled "The Best Dressed Stars From the 2026 Met Gala". (see: https://www.vogue.com/slideshow/best-dressed-stars-met-gala-2024, https://www.vogue.com/slideshow/best-dressed-stars-met-gala-2025) If Vogue does not release a best-dressed list by May 15, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

6 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket