Will Adele be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?
Probability
35¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+13.0pp
24h Vol
$25.00
Liquidity
$55.75
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto Vogue's list of the Best Dressed Stars at the 2026 Met GalaLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 13pp over 24h
Now 35¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 49h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $56 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 49 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto Vogue's list of the Best Dressed Stars at the 2026 Met GalaLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 49.0h
- 23:02SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 49h.
Price movement
+13.0pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled to occur on May 4, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes' if the listed individual appears on Vogue's list of Best Dressed Stars from the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to Vogue's list of the Best Dressed Stars at the 2026 Met Gala. A qualifying list must be understood to be the 2026 equivalent list of the following articles, but need not be explicitly titled "The Best Dressed Stars From the 2026 Met Gala". (see: https://www.vogue.com/slideshow/best-dressed-stars-met-gala-2024, https://www.vogue.com/slideshow/best-dressed-stars-met-gala-2025) If Vogue does not release a best-dressed list by May 15, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.