Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.9pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the AI model listed below that shows the lowest total account value on the NOF1LinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.9pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the AI model listed below that shows the lowest total account value on the NOF1LinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: to the AI model listed below that shows the lowest total account value on the NOF1
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
The second iteration of Nof1's Alpha Arena AI trading competition, Alpha Arena Season 1.5, launched on November 19, 2025. This market will resolve according to the AI model listed below that shows the lowest total account value on the NOF1.ai leaderboard (https://nof1.ai/leaderboard) when the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition concludes. Results from the leaderboard displayed on https://nof1.ai/leaderboard, showing the account value for each model, will be used to resolve this market. The first AI model whose account value equals zero before the check time will be considered eliminated and may resolve “Yes” immediately. If two or more models are tied for the lowest account value at the time of resolution, the tiebreaker will be determined first by the lower Win Rate. If a tie still remains, resolution will be based on the alphabetical order of the models’ company names as listed. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard becomes available and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable or if the competition does not finish, this market will resolve based on the latest reliable reports available.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 21:30:50 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $9.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
11 wallets- 0xa5ef…29667.6K