Will King Charles say "Colony" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Probability
21¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$9.34
Liquidity
$199.48
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 21¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 53h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 53h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 53 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 53.0h
- 19:00SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 53h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+4.0pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.
Biggest hourly move: -13.0pp at 08:00 (to 15¢).
Show all 24 hour-by-hour ticks
- 11:00 · -5.0pp → 15¢
- 09:00 · -9.0pp → 15¢
- 08:00 · -13.0pp → 15¢
- 06:00 · -13.0pp → 16¢
- 05:00 · -12.0pp → 16¢
- 03:00 · -12.5pp → 16¢
- 02:00 · -13.0pp → 16¢
- 00:00 · -12.5pp → 16¢
- 23:00 · -12.5pp → 16¢
- 21:00 · -5.5pp → 16¢
- 20:00 · -5.5pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -5.0pp → 18¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · +12.5pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 44¢-2.5pp
Will King Charles say "American" or "America" 15+ times during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $51.52
- 35¢+4.5pp
Will King Charles say "Freedom" 5+ times during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $18.84
- 56¢+10.0pp
Will King Charles say "Mother" or "Mama" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $108.60
- 77¢+1.0pp
Will King Charles say "Independence" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $7.12
- 58¢+1.0pp
Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Geopolitics · Vol $212.26
- 78¢+2.0pp
Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $67.31
- 60¢+5.5pp
Will King Charles say "George" or "Washington" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $8.93
- 86¢+2.0pp
Will King Charles say "Anniversary" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $97.42
- 0¢-0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $650.8K
- 3¢+0.8pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $588.6K
- 5¢-0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $509.0K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $339.9K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $333.3K
- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $315.0K
Market Description
King Charles is scheduled to participate in a joint meeting of Congress on April 28, 2026. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/01/king-charles-joint-meeting-congress/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if King Charles says the listed term during the joint meeting of Congress scheduled for April 28, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about King Charles's remarks at the joint meeting of Congress scheduled for April 28, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- washingtonpost.comSource not classifiedextracted · lowwashingtonpost.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.