Will Kwa Na Kwa win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $7.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

3. 3

   Past expiry — awaiting resolution

   Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

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The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament). This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election. If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market may remain open to consider any second-round votes held to determine winners in individual single-member constituencies, as long as the remaining undecided seats can still change which party wins the most seats overall, or maximally until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on the results available at that time. In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (https://www.ane-rca.org/).