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SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 1, 2026

Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?

Probability

25¢

1h

-0.2pp

24h

+19.0pp

24h Vol

$4.86

Liquidity

$65.94

Probability (last 7 days)

+20.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:04
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 19pp over 24h

    Now 25¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 4544h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 46.5¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 4543.9h

    LOW
  • 16:04Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 4544h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 16:04Price

    Probability up 19.1pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 19.3pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 19.6pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 19.9pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 20.1pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 20.3pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 20.4pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 11.2pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 11.3pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 11.8pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 12.4pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.3pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.9pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to the next team LeBron James officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If LeBron James does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Los Angeles Lakers”. If LeBron James joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If LeBron James retires or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official acquisition announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Los Angeles Lakers and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Nov 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (46.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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