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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Jan 1, 2027

Will Lerone Murphy fight Alexander Volkanovski next?

Probability

22¢

1h

-0.3pp

24h

+9.0pp

24h Vol

$2.33

Liquidity

$308.62

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.7pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:20
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 9pp over 24h

    Now 22¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 42.9¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6008.7h

    LOW
  • 15:20Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -6.7pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -13.1pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -13.1pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -13.1pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -13.2pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -10.4pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -10.9pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -10.9pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -11.4pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -12.2pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -10.4pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -10.1pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.9pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.2pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.4pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.8pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.6pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.1pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.6pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.2pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.8pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Alexander Volkanovski is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Alexander Volkanovski is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Volkanovski is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (42.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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