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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?

Probability

92¢

1h

-0.2pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$119.22

Liquidity

$1.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+10.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:45
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 5.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 106.2h

    LOW
  • 13:45Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 4.1pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 4.1pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 3.3pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 8.6pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 3.3pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.1pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.6pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.2pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 14.4pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.8pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.4pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.6pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.8pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.1pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.7pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.7pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.7pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.3pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.6pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met OfficeAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (5.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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