Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?
Probability
92¢
1h
-0.2pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$119.22
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.2h
- 13:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 92¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 92¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 92¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 92¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 89¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 91¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 91¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 90¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 90¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 90¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.6pp
to 92¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.2pp
to 92¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.4pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.8pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.4pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.6pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.8pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.7pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.7pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.6pp
to 90¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met OfficeAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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