SportsExpires —
Creator

Will Luis Javier Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Probability

71¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+18.0pp

24h Vol

$444.76

Liquidity

$806.87

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
—
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
71¢
Jun 1, 2026, 15:00 UTCJun 2, 2026, 22:28 UTC
updated 22:29:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-02T22-29Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 18pp over 24h

    Now 71¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $807 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 66¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow
No timeline events available yet. The timeline fills in as trades land, signals fire, or the price moves more than 3pp in an hour.
updated 22:29:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 22:29:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWorld Cup: Player to score
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed player scores a goal during any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. A goal scored during regular time, stoppage time, and extra time will be considered. No goal scored by way of own goal or penalty shootout will be considered. A goal scored by way of penalty kick during regular time, stoppage time, and extra time will count toward a “Yes” resolution. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined if the listed player scored a goal during the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

2026 fifa world cup

Reason

FIFA World Cup outright/team markets are Sports even when the team/country name is also a geopolitics keyword.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Luis Javier Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

As of Tue, 02 Jun 2026 22:29:00 GMT, YES is priced at 71% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +18.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$444.76 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $444.76. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $806.87. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

10 wallets
Open on Polymarket