Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 235m?
Probability
88¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$419.46
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 442h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 442.3h
- 13:42SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 442h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:42PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 88¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 88¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 88¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 88¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 88¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 88¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 88¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 88¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 88¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 88¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 88¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 88¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 89¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 89¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 89¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 89¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 88¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 87¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 87¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 94¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 94¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 94¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lyft’s total number of rides for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Lyft’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, regulatory filings, and webcast transcripts/recordings. Note: if the specified company reports multiple variations of the specified metric, the first version of the metric found in the following hierarchy of earnings materials will be used. 1) Earnings Press Release 2) Earnings Investor Presentation 3) Regulatory Filings 4) Transcripts or recordings of Earnings webcast.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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