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OtherExpires May 14, 2026

Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 235m?

Probability

88¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$419.46

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:42
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 442h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 442.3h

    LOW
  • 13:42Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 442h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:42Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 14.5pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -20.5pp

    to 63¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lyft’s total number of rides for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Lyft’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, regulatory filings, and webcast transcripts/recordings. Note: if the specified company reports multiple variations of the specified metric, the first version of the metric found in the following hierarchy of earnings materials will be used. 1) Earnings Press Release 2) Earnings Investor Presentation 3) Regulatory Filings 4) Transcripts or recordings of Earnings webcast.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 14, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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