Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?
Probability
76¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$2.1K
Liquidity
$4.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 76¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 508h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $4.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 507.6h
- 20:16SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 508h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+8.5pp over the last 24h, now 76¢.
Biggest hourly move: -22.0pp at 17:00 (to 47¢).
Show all 21 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:00 · +7.0pp → 76¢
- 19:00 · +5.0pp → 74¢
- 17:00 · -22.0pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 70¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 68¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 70¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 70¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 70¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 68¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2025-2026 FA Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Football Association (https://www.thefa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.