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GeopoliticsExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.8pp

24h Vol

$15.3K

Liquidity

$26.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

-11.2pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 09:00Apr 25, 2026, 08:12
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 111.8h

    LOW
  • 08:12Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 112h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -3.7pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -3.7pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -4.2pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -6.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -4.9pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.2pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.2pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.8pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.3pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
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Alerts

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