Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Probability
10¢
1h
-4.0pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$257.68
Liquidity
$334.62
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6000h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 15.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6000.1h
- 23:50SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6000h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.4pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.3pp at 1d ago (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -10.3pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -10.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -10.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 16¢
- 3d ago · -9.0pp → 16¢
- 3d ago · -9.0pp → 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 28¢-4.0pp
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Sports · Vol $275.44
- 3¢-10.0pp
Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Sports · Vol $73.09
- 0¢0.0pp
Will Thomas Tuchel be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Sports · Vol $82.16
- 5¢-1.3pp
Will Massimiliano Allegri be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Sports · Vol $107.18
- 7¢-2.0pp
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Sports · Vol $197.12
- 4¢-2.3pp
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Sports · Vol $82.16
- 50¢0.0pp
Will coach G be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will coach T be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Sports · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Real Madrid. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Real Madrid; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (15.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.