Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$6.0K
Liquidity
$9.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible sourcesTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-31.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $9.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 18¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible sourcesTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 819.1h
Price movement
-5.5pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.
Biggest hourly move: -30.0pp at 2d ago (to 19¢).
Show top 8 of 66 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -27.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -28.0pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -28.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -27.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -30.0pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -24.5pp → 19¢
- 3d ago · -21.5pp → 23¢
- 3d ago · -21.5pp → 23¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 20:55:05 GMT, YES is priced at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -5.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -31.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 10, 2026 (2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$6.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $9.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
