Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.6pp
24h Vol
$9.5K
Liquidity
$6.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-43.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 36.7h
- 11:18SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 37h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:18PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 0¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.4pp
to 1¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.8pp
to 0¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.9pp
to 2¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.1pp
to 0¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.1pp
to 0¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.8pp
to 2¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.6pp
to 2¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.3pp
to 1¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 3¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.3pp
to 2¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.1pp
to 3¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.9pp
to 4¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 3¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.0pp
to 6¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 6¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
5- 4¢-18.1pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?
Entertainment · Vol $11.6K
- 30¢+13.5pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?
Entertainment · Vol $11.8K
- 1¢-28.8pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?
Entertainment · Vol $12.6K
- 61¢+34.5pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m?
Entertainment · Vol $12.3K
- 6¢-0.9pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?
Entertainment · Vol $15.0K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekendAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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