Will Mike Trout win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award?
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$203.68
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 31¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5529.1h
- 14:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 31¢.
Biggest hourly move: +31.5pp at 2d ago (to 54¢).
Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
- 2d ago · +31.5pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · +29.0pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +23.0pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · +22.5pp → 45¢
- 4d ago · +25.5pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · +27.5pp → 50¢
- 4d ago · +25.0pp → 47¢
- 4d ago · +27.0pp → 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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