Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.9pp
24h
+0.7pp
24h Vol
$109.91
Liquidity
$663.22
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6012.0h
- 11:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6012h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Real Madrid. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Real Madrid; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).