Will Montpellier HSC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$500.00
Liquidity
$942.45
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial Ligue 1 dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $942 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial Ligue 1 dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 534.0h
Price movement
-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -46.9pp at 2d ago (to 3¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -46.9pp → 3¢
- 4d ago · -45.0pp → 2¢
- 4d ago · -45.0pp → 2¢
- 4d ago · -12.7pp → 2¢
- 4d ago · -6.0pp → 2¢
- 5d ago · -6.5pp → 2¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team achieves promotion from the French Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026–27 season at the conclusion of the current league season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Official promotion is defined as a team clinching a place in Ligue 1 for the 2026–27 season through their final standing in the Ligue 2, via playoff victory, or by any other official league decision recognized by the Ligue 1 and Ligue 2. If the 2025-26 Ligue 2 season is cancelled, postponed after June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for promotion within that timeframe, the corresponding market will “No”. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Ligue 1 and Ligue 2. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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