Will Montpellier win the 2026 Top 14 Final?
Probability
48¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$7.47
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (91.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 91.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (91.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 28, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 969.1h
- 14:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.5pp at May 14, 10:00 UTC (to 49¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 23:00 · -3.5pp → 47¢
- May 14, 17:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 47¢
- May 14, 16:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 47¢
- May 14, 14:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 49¢
- May 14, 12:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 49¢
- May 14, 10:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 49¢
- May 14, 06:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 49¢
- May 14, 03:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 Top 14 Final. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Top 14 Final per the rules of the French Top 14 (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by French Top 14 rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Top 14 Final is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 AM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the French Top 14; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Montpellier win the 2026 Top 14 Final?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 14:52:07 GMT, YES is priced at 48% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +3.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 28, 2026 (2026-06-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.03. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.47. Spread between best bid and best ask: 91.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.