Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?
Probability
1¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$3.8K
Liquidity
$6.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto how much "Mortal Kombat II" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekendLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 56h.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $6.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 56 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto how much "Mortal Kombat II" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekendLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 18, 12:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 56.4h
- 03:34SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 56h.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -46.1pp at 11:00 (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 23:00 · -24.8pp → 1¢
- 20:00 · -24.1pp → 1¢
- 18:00 · -28.6pp → 1¢
- 16:00 · -37.6pp → 1¢
- 15:00 · -39.1pp → 1¢
- 13:00 · -45.6pp → 1¢
- 12:00 · -46.1pp → 1¢
- 11:00 · -46.1pp → 1¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Mortal Kombat II" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
box officeReason
Question text contains "box office" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?"?
As of Sat, 16 May 2026 03:34:54 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.the-numbers.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$3.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.