OtherExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?

Probability

99¢

-0.1pp

24h

+0.4pp

24h Vol

$2.9K

Liquidity

$6.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+12.3pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:17

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
2
Thin liquidity
Only $6.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 106.7h
LOW
13:18Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
00:00Price
Probability up 7.6pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability up 7.7pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 8.5pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 8.6pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability up 8.1pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability up 8.5pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability up 8.9pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 10.3pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 13.8pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 9.3pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 9.3pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 9.4pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 8.9pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 8.5pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 3.3pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.3pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.5pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.6pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.5pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.6pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.3pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 99¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.5pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 12.5pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 12.3pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 12.2pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 10.7pp
to 98¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventWill MrBeast hit ___ Million subscribers by April 30?

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Apr 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket