Will Nate and Cassie get divorced in Euphoria: Season 3?
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$41.55
Liquidity
$159.56
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 23.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1249.9h
- 22:05SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.
Biggest hourly move: -27.5pp at 01:00 (to 21¢).
Show top 8 of 20 hourly moves
- 05:00 · -27.5pp → 22¢
- 03:00 · -26.5pp → 22¢
- 01:00 · -27.5pp → 21¢
- 23:00 · -26.5pp → 22¢
- 1d ago · -27.0pp → 23¢
- 1d ago · -26.5pp → 23¢
- 1d ago · -26.5pp → 23¢
- 1d ago · -26.5pp → 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cassie Howard and Nate Jacobs get divorced in "Euphoria: Season 3". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying divorce must show Nate Jacobs and Cassie Howard getting a divorce on screen, or a divorce must be said or otherwise accepted to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., other characters discuss the divorce). Announcements of intent to divorce or separation will not qualify. Only divorces which occur during "Euphoria: Season 3" will qualify. Flashback scenes showing Cassie Howard and Nate Jacobs getting divorced, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions, will not affect resolution. Only events depicted in official "Euphoria: Season 3" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "Euphoria: Season 3" is released. If the final episode of "Euphoria: Season 3" is not released by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve based off the available episodes.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
divorceReason
Question text contains "divorce" — matched the Culture keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Nate and Cassie get divorced in Euphoria: Season 3?"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 22:05:35 GMT, YES is priced at 23% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$41.55 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $208.17. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $159.56. Spread between best bid and best ask: 23.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
