Will New Mexico have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Probability
34¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+33.1pp
24h Vol
$44.00
Liquidity
$383.06
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
15% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
15% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (67.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 33pp over 24h
Now 34¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 67.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (67.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: nato
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will New Mexico have the closest Governor's race in 2026? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will New Mexico have the closest Governor's race in 2026? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Nov 3, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2709.2h
- 02:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+33.1pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.
Biggest hourly move: -43.5pp at Jul 11, 09:00 UTC (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 56 hourly moves
- 05:00 · -43.4pp → 1¢
- 03:00 · -43.4pp → 1¢
- Jul 13, 02:00 UTC · -43.4pp → 1¢
- Jul 13, 00:00 UTC · -43.4pp → 1¢
- Jul 12, 21:00 UTC · -43.4pp → 1¢
- Jul 12, 19:00 UTC · -43.4pp → 1¢
- Jul 12, 18:00 UTC · -43.4pp → 1¢
- Jul 11, 09:00 UTC · -43.5pp → 1¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 16¢+7.6
Will Arizona have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 5¢0.0
Will Minnesota have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 6¢-0.3
Will Wisconsin have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 7¢+3.5
Will Maine have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Politics · Vol $2.20
- 2¢+0.4
Will New Hampshire have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Politics · Vol $104.22
- 7¢-1.0
Will Nevada have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Politics · Vol $12.50
- 6¢-3.1
Will Iowa have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Politics · Vol $20.00
- 1¢0.0
Will Vermont have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 1¢-0.1
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $801.1K
- 1¢-0.1
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics · Vol $257.0K
- 0¢-0.1
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $221.8K
- 0¢-0.1
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
Politics · Vol $214.7K
- 0¢+0.1
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Politics · Vol $178.2K
- 0¢-0.1
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics · Vol $173.0K
Market Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
midterm electionReason
Election markets are Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will New Mexico have the closest Governor's race in 2026?"?
As of Tue, 14 Jul 2026 02:44:22 GMT, YES is priced at 34% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +33.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -10.3pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 3, 2026 (2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$44.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $134.73. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $383.06. Spread between best bid and best ask: 67.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.