Will Noni Madueke be named the 2026 UEFA Champions League Final Man of the Match?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-14.4pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$275.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 14, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-16.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 14pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 14, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 14, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 326.3h
- 09:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
-14.4pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: +22.5pp at 17:00 (to 39¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 06:00 · -16.4pp → 0¢
- 04:00 · -16.4pp → 0¢
- 03:00 · -16.4pp → 0¢
- 02:00 · -16.4pp → 0¢
- 19:00 · +22.5pp → 39¢
- 18:00 · +22.5pp → 39¢
- 17:00 · +22.5pp → 39¢
- 16:00 · +21.5pp → 38¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Man of the Match award for the 2026 UEFA Champions League Final. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by UEFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 UEFA Champions League Final is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
champions leagueReason
UEFA Champions League — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Noni Madueke be named the 2026 UEFA Champions League Final Man of the Match?"?
As of Sun, 31 May 2026 09:42:09 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -14.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -16.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 14, 2026 (2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $275.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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