Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.2pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$3.4K
Liquidity
$8.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $8.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 6¢+0.3pp
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $297.29
- 3¢-1.2pp
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $5.49
- 6¢+0.1pp
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $0.00
- 2¢+0.3pp
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30
Geopolitics · Vol $1.38
- 11¢-1.9pp
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $479.68
- 4¢+0.1pp
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $4.20
- 8¢0.0pp
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $0.26
- 11¢0.0pp
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $7.69
- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $11.9M
- 4¢-6.5pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $2.0M
- 1¢-1.2pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.3M
- 27¢-36.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $989.6K
- 8¢-42.9pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $835.1K
- 56¢+2.0pp
Hurricanes vs. Senators
Geopolitics · Vol $780.2K
Market Description
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.