Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in May?
Probability
71¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$977.80
Liquidity
$6.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+40.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 71¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $6.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 539.6h
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 71¢.
Biggest hourly move: +55.5pp at 1d ago (to 78¢).
Show top 8 of 69 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +50.0pp → 71¢
- 22:00 · +49.0pp → 71¢
- 21:00 · +51.0pp → 71¢
- 20:00 · +50.5pp → 71¢
- 18:00 · +50.0pp → 73¢
- 17:00 · +50.0pp → 73¢
- 1d ago · +52.0pp → 74¢
- 1d ago · +55.5pp → 78¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
nvidiaReason
Question text contains "nvidia" — matched the Business keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in May?"?
As of Sat, 09 May 2026 16:22:43 GMT, YES is priced at 71% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +40.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$977.80 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
