Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in May?
Probability
45¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+19.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$72.76
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET accordingLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (68.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 20pp over 24h
Now 45¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 68.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET accordingLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (68.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 665.1h
- 06:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+19.5pp over the last 24h, now 45¢.
Biggest hourly move: -20.5pp at 21:00 (to 25¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -20.5pp → 25¢
- 19:00 · -16.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -15.0pp → 23¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · -15.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for May 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of May 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Alerts
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