Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?
Probability
28¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-12.9pp
24h Vol
$84.26
Liquidity
$406.31
Probability (last 7 days)
-40.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 107.8h
- 12:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.2pp
to 28¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.6pp
to 28¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.7pp
to 28¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 27¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 27¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.3pp
to 27¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.9pp
to 27¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.0pp
to 27¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.9pp
to 28¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.8pp
to 41¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.8pp
to 41¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.9pp
to 40¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.8pp
to 41¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.6pp
to 38¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.7pp
to 41¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 40¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.7pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.9pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.4pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.8pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.3pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.9pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.7pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.3pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.1pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.3pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.4pp
to 39¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (34.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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