Assured-Clapboard
0xd70ba171994a8397b7b7d6d73c36372d51eba152
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-885.72
Realised
$-146.41
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?
682 shares @ 54.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$682.00
$308.29
- NO
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?
438 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$438.00
$127.02
- YES
Anduril IPO before 2027?
375 shares @ 17.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.38
$-39.38
- NO
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?
22 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$22.00
$2.86
- NO
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.09
- NO
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 12.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.54
$0.42
- YES
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?
1178 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-730.36
- UP
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 5AM ET
469 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-229.81
- MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
375 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-37.88
- YES
U.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?
116 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.09
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?$481.06Apr 27, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?$631.84Apr 23, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?$373.71Apr 23, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLDatabricks IPO before 2027?$132.66Apr 12, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?$104.96Apr 11, 09:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?$77.76Apr 11, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?$503.13Apr 11, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Milena Moreira be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?$5.75Apr 11, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$181.97Apr 11, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?$181.44Apr 11, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$176.33Apr 11, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?$310.98Apr 11, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYDatabricks IPO before 2027?$180.90Apr 11, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?$24.57Apr 9, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?$184.22Apr 9, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?$99.90Apr 9, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$21.67Apr 9, 11:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$519.10Apr 9, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Milena Moreira be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?$102.35Apr 8, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$474.83Apr 8, 01:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $249.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 02:35 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 08:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.