Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Probability
38¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$51.85
Liquidity
$5.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-15.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $5.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1568.8h
- 15:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 38¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 38¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 38¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 38¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 38¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 38¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 38¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 38¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 38¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 38¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 38¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 38¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 38¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 38¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 38¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 38¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 41¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
5Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).