0xc66b01e1e26a915c97c35a6b82ed6623751a02aa
0xc66b01e1e26a915c97c35a6b82ed6623751a02aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$20.19
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-3.86
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
755 shares @ 7.1¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.84
$-40.78
- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?
15 shares @ 72.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$7.35
$-3.34
- NO
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?
1711 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-85.56
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?
1426 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-85.56
- YES
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?
951 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-85.56
- YES
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?
701 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-85.56
- YES
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
658 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-85.56
- YES
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?
570 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-85.56
- YES
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?
475 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-85.56
- YES
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?
450 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-85.56
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?$12.58Jul 29, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$15.62Jul 29, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?$16.97Jul 29, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$11.62Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$12.01Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?$12.01Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B?$12.11Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$12.15Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$12.29Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$12.34Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$12.58Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?$13.02Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$13.62Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$14.65Jul 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$14.85Jul 29, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?$16.08Jul 29, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$16.08Jul 29, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$17.66Jul 29, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.7% in June?$20.05Jul 29, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?$24.12Jul 29, 07:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $5.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.