Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Probability
21¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$8.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 21¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $8.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1566.2h
- 17:49SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+5.6pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.
Biggest hourly move: +15.1pp at 2d ago (to 22¢).
Show all 34 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +8.3pp → 22¢
- 15:00 · +9.2pp → 22¢
- 14:00 · +10.2pp → 22¢
- 12:00 · +8.3pp → 22¢
- 11:00 · +8.0pp → 22¢
- 09:00 · +8.0pp → 22¢
- 08:00 · +7.6pp → 22¢
- 06:00 · +7.4pp → 22¢
- 05:00 · +7.5pp → 22¢
- 03:00 · +7.2pp → 21¢
- 02:00 · +6.1pp → 21¢
- 00:00 · +5.8pp → 20¢
- 23:00 · +6.0pp → 21¢
- 21:00 · +7.4pp → 20¢
- 20:00 · +6.5pp → 17¢
- 18:00 · +5.3pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · +4.3pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · +3.3pp → 15¢
- 1d ago · +7.1pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · +13.3pp → 22¢
- 1d ago · +11.4pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +4.1pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +10.2pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +8.6pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +4.3pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +12.0pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · +10.6pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · +11.8pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · +10.9pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · +9.8pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · +15.1pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · +11.2pp → 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (httpsAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowlmarena.ai
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.