Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Probability
72¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+44.0pp
24h Vol
$60.1K
Liquidity
$28.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+44.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 44pp over 24h
Now 72¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 2.1× turnover
$60.1k traded against $28.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 44.0pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 67¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 06:49SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 44.0pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
+44.0pp over the last 24h, now 72¢.
Biggest hourly move: +45.0pp at 18:00 (to 73¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 19:01 · +44.5pp → 73¢
- 18:00 · +45.0pp → 73¢
- 17:00 · +42.5pp → 71¢
- May 17, 21:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 31¢
- May 17, 19:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 31¢
- May 17, 17:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
5Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ipo Reason
IPO markets are Business / corporate-finance events.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?"?
As of Thu, 21 May 2026 06:49:16 GMT, YES is priced at 72% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +44.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +44.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$60.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $514.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $28.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
20 wallets- Each-Default13.9K
- Ample-Instance12.2K
- Double-Scrim8.8K
- Beautiful-Collateral4.9K
- Drafty-Incidence4.0K