Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Probability
62¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$39.08
Liquidity
$7.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6016h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $7.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6016.1h
- 12:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6016h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 65¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 65¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 65¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 66¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).