Will Paloma Valencia win between 15% and 20% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 5pp over 24h

  Now 21¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Expires in 13h. Spread is extremely wide.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 12.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Paloma Valencia wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Paloma Valencia, not any coalition of which she may be a part. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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