Will Patrick Mahomes start Week 1 for the Chiefs in 2026?
Probability
52¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$167.90
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 52¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3293h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 69.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3292.7h
- 19:19SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3293h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.
Biggest hourly move: -38.0pp at 2d ago (to 44¢).
Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:00 · +6.5pp → 55¢
- 16:00 · +5.0pp → 53¢
- 12:00 · +4.0pp → 48¢
- 05:00 · +4.0pp → 48¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · -7.0pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · -6.5pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 48¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 48¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · -33.0pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · -38.0pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · +5.0pp → 49¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 48¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 48¢
- 3d ago · +7.0pp → 44¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed player who is the starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 1 regular season game of the 2026-2027 NFL season. If the Chiefs do not name a single player as the starting quarterback, the market will resolve based on the player who takes the most snaps at quarterback during their first offensive drive of the game. If multiple players take the same number of snaps on the Chiefs’ first offensive drive, the market will resolve to the player who took the first snap at quarterback. This market may not resolve before the start of the Chiefs’ Week 1 regular season game. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the NFL (NFL.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- NFL.comOfficial sports resultextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (69.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.