Will Powell say "Governor" during April press conference?
Probability
72¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$98.51
Liquidity
$16.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+18.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $16.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 03Resolution proximity
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 04:58SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 5h ago
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 72¢.
Biggest hourly move: +35.0pp at 14:00 (to 84¢).
Show top 8 of 65 hourly moves
- 22:00 · +25.5pp → 74¢
- 19:00 · +25.0pp → 72¢
- 15:00 · +26.0pp → 73¢
- 14:00 · +35.0pp → 84¢
- 11:00 · +25.0pp → 73¢
- 07:00 · +26.5pp → 74¢
- 1d ago · +26.0pp → 74¢
- 1d ago · +27.0pp → 75¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If no such statement happens by April 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 29, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.