Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?
Probability
1¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$197.23
Liquidity
$790.61
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, asLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 31h.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $791 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 31 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, asLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 31.4h
- 16:33SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 31h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 16:33:34 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$197.23 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $197.23. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $790.61. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
