Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$40.00
Liquidity
$9.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $9.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.2h
- 13:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in March 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and April 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the title of the film released in March 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and April 30, 2026 accordinAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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