Wallet profile

Quarterly-Nightingale

0xfba65b33e7d8f978ab92921e2a2146789bee3dc3

activity 68/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

68/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

28

Open notional

$361.99

Total PnL

$-11.2K

Realised

$-3.8K

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 28

Recent activity

  • YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$4.50Jul 9, 21:17 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal
block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record
block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

100%

Sample

low

1 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

$5.8K · 100% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100% of recorded volume$5.8K

Profile dimensions

Activity49 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence7 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry14 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk80 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
6
Avg trade size
$4.7K
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 17, 16:34 UTC
Last active
Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
Win rate sample
2 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 20:52:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data