PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 17, 2026
Creator

Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by more than 15%?

Probability

34¢

1h

-5.0pp

24h

-6.5pp

24h Vol

$17.01

Liquidity

$74.29

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 17, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Link
sos.ga.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Jun 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (60.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
34¢
Jun 12, 2026, 15:00 UTCJun 14, 2026, 15:12 UTC
updated 15:12:37 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-14T15-12Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 34¢; -5.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 61h. Spread is extremely wide.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 60.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 61 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: nato

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by more than 15%? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by more than 15%? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 17, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 60.8h

    HIGH
  • 15:12Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 61h. Spread is extremely wide.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-6.5pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.

updated 15:12:37 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 15:12:37 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventGeorgia Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Category · Politics

Market Description

The Georgia Gubernatorial Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for June 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Georgia Republican Gubernatorial Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Georgia, such as official statewide results published by the Georgia Secretary of State (https://sos.ga.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

republican

Reason

Question text contains "republican" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by more than 15%?"?

As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 15:12:37 GMT, YES is priced at 34% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -6.5pp in the last 24 hours, -5.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 17, 2026 (2026-06-17T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$17.01 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $35.10. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $74.29. Spread between best bid and best ask: 60.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

4 wallets
Open on Polymarket