Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be between $130M and $150M at market close on IPO day?
Probability
5¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-4.7pp
24h Vol
$18.61
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 5¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 8.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 15:15SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 5¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.8pp
to 5¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.1pp
to 5¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.6pp
to 5¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 9¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 9¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.2pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoResolveHIGH
Market resolved 39h ago
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.3pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.1pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.1pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.9pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.9pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.9pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.9pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
5- 16¢-1.5pp
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be between $90M and $110M at market close on IPO day?
Business · Vol $14.74
- 46¢-10.5pp
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026?
Business · Vol $29.37
- 14¢-0.5pp
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be less than $90M at market close on IPO day?
Business · Vol $33.53
- 17¢-1.0pp
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be between $110M and $130M at market close on IPO day?
Business · Vol $8.75
- 0¢-1.4pp
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be greater than $150M at market close on IPO day?
Business · Vol $193.77
Market Description
This market will resolve based on Riku Dining Group’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on April 24 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before June 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (8.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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